The Indian auto part trade is anticipated to put up a 13-15 per cent income development in FY22, supported by home unique gear producers (OEMs), alternative, export volumes and pass-through of commodity costs, on the again of the low base of the earlier fiscal, says score company ICRA.
Home OEM demand has remained a combined bag throughout segments in FY22, with a slowdown in two-wheelers and semiconductor scarcity dragging down general manufacturing volumes. Exports have remained a vivid spot within the Indian auto part story, partly aided by the China+1 technique. That is regardless of provide chain points.
“ICRA believes that the expansion in FY22 exports would have been even higher if not for the semiconductor scarcity. Whereas auto ancillaries have a wholesome export order ebook for the following few months, the affect of geopolitical and supply-chain points on the precise offtake stays monitorable,” mentioned Vinutaa S, Assistant Vice President & Sector Head-Company Rankings, ICRA.
Within the aftermarket/alternative section, the advance in private mobility, wholesome freight motion and deferment of latest automobile purchases on account of price inflation have supported alternative gross sales in the previous few months. Part of the income development has additionally come from commodity pass-through.
Whereas January-mid-February was comparatively uninteresting due to the Omicron wave, demand picked up in the previous few weeks. At present, the liquidity in aftermarkets is comfy. There have been some points in collections in January 2022, due to Omicron-related absenteeism/quarantining and consequent lack of ability to gather funds, however that has subsequently improved.
Demand for private and non-private transport as colleges and places of work reopen, and enchancment within the financial exercise and freight motion, is prone to support alternative volumes within the subsequent few months. Value inflation and semiconductor scarcity stay headwinds for the trade.
With the sharp improve in commodity costs within the final three to 4 quarters, auto ancillaries haven’t been in a position to cross via solely, leading to a decline in gross margins. Additionally, the continued Ukraine-Russia geopolitical pressure might result in provide shortages and improve commodity costs, particularly metal and aluminium.
Additional, a rise in crude costs can have a bearing on gas prices for auto ancillaries. Freight charges have elevated by 4 to 5 instances final 12 months, and are prone to stay at elevated ranges within the close to time period. Provide chain uncertainties, inflation and the necessity for stock stocking have led to incremental stock necessities as properly.
Value inflation and semiconductor scarcity stay headwinds for the trade
General, the working margins for auto ancillaries are prone to be impacted within the close to time period. Whereas the semiconductor scenario has been bettering within the final one to 2 months, the Russia-Ukraine battle might stress the globalised chip worth chain. The affect of geopolitical developments on semiconductor provides stays monitorable.
ICRA’s interplay with giant auto part suppliers signifies a cautiously optimistic strategy in direction of capex/funding plans for FY23.
Gradual improve in capex
The score company expects auto part suppliers to regularly improve their capex/funding outlay in FY23, although most of those investments shall be largely funded by inside accruals. The incremental investments shall be primarily in direction of functionality improvement i.e., new product additions and dedicated platforms, not like the investments in direction of capability growth witnessed prior to now.
There may be some capex occurring for the event of superior expertise and EV parts as properly. The recently-announced PLI scheme may also contribute to accelerating capex.
For FY23, the auto part trade’s revenues are prone to increase by 8-10 per cent supported by the easing of supply-chain points and commodity inflation in H2 FY23. Over the long run, premiumisation of automobiles and deal with localisation will translate into wholesome development for auto part suppliers.
March 31, 2022