Is AutoZone Inventory A Purchase Or Promote As It Nears All-Time Highs?


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Article Thesis

AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) is a robust compounder that has been delivering nice worth for shareholders prior to now. Due to strong demand for the substitute elements and equipment it sells, AutoZone has a compelling enterprise progress outlook. The corporate’s buybacks will proceed to ship extra earnings per share progress tailwinds and can put a ground underneath the share value on high of that. All in all, AutoZone appears to be like like a strong funding right here, though it was a greater purchase six months or a yr in the past when shares had been cheaper.

Why Has AutoZone Inventory Been Going Up?

AutoZone, Inc. has seen its shares rise by an enormous 450% during the last decade, which simply trounced the broad market’s return, because the S&P 500 is up 230% over the identical time interval. This was pushed by enterprise progress and a gentle decline in AZO’s share depend. Mixed, these two elements allowed AZO to develop its earnings per share by 380% during the last decade, whereas its money stream per share rose 420% over the identical time-frame. The overwhelming majority of AZO’s share value positive aspects had been thus pushed by underlying progress on a per-share foundation, and never by a number of growth. That is in stark distinction to many different shares that obtained far more costly during the last decade.

During the last yr, AZO has seen its shares rise by a hefty 70%. This was partially as a consequence of compelling enterprise efficiency, e.g. comparable gross sales progress of 14% throughout the newest quarter. AZO’s buybacks additionally performed a task, as these impacted the supply-demand image for the corporate’s shares on the inventory market. Macro elements had been at play as effectively, nevertheless. The market more and more realized that rising common car age and rising costs for used and new automobiles are good for AutoZone’s enterprise, which is why AZO’s shares attracted new buyers.

AZO Inventory Key Metrics

AutoZone, Inc. isn’t a high-growth retailer on the subject of new retailer openings. The corporate operates round 6,800 shops right this moment, with most of these being situated within the US, whereas AZO additionally operates some shops in Mexico and Brazil. Throughout the newest quarter, AZO opened 15 new shops – this pencils out to an annualized progress fee of 1%. That’s not a serious progress driver, in fact, however AutoZone fortunately does not depend on new retailer openings for progress. As a substitute, AZO’s income progress is primarily pushed by rising same-store gross sales – the gross sales productiveness of AZO’s common retailer has risen quite a bit over time. Throughout the newest quarter, AZO reported same-store gross sales progress of 13.6% whereas same-store gross sales progress through the earlier quarter stood at 4%. There are some ups and downs in same-store gross sales, however the total trajectory clearly is pointing upwards.

Rising same-store gross sales don’t solely have a constructive affect on AZO’s income, however additionally they are useful for its margins. Per-store bills are mounted to a big diploma, which implies that extra gross sales at an present location create margin tailwinds due to the truth that a bigger portion of the gross revenue being generated flows by to the underside line. AZO has, due to that, managed to develop its working margins from the high-teens to slightly above 20% during the last decade – which may be very engaging for a retailer.

Is AZO Inventory Overvalued?

As proven above, nearly all of AZO’s share value positive aspects during the last decade had been pushed by underlying earnings per share/money stream per share progress, and never by a number of growth. Nonetheless, AZO obtained barely dearer over time, which is to be anticipated for many shares throughout a multi-year bull market.

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Primarily based on present EPS and EBITDA estimates for this fiscal yr, which ends in August, AZO is buying and selling marginally forward of its longer-term median valuation. Primarily based on EPS estimates, AZO trades at a 5% premium to the 10-year median, whereas the premium to the 10-year median is 16%. On common, AZO is thus ~10% dearer than it was once during the last decade. AutoZone has a really clear historical past of beating Wall Road estimates – throughout 15 out of the final 15 quarters, EPS beat the consensus. I do thus consider that there’s a excessive probability that present estimates are too low and that AZO will outperform expectations, not less than barely. Contemplating this, the present ahead valuation is kind of in-line with how the corporate was valued prior to now. Once we account for the truth that many different firms obtained far more costly through the big bull market during the last decade, this means that AZO is way from overvalued. With a high-teens earnings a number of, AZO additionally does not look costly in absolute phrases once we account for the demonstrable observe file and the strong progress outlook.

AutoZone, Inc. is not as cheap because it was six months or one yr in the past, however shares are neither wanting overvalued in absolute phrases nor once we examine the present valuation to the historic norm. I do consider that AZO is buying and selling near honest worth right this moment.

Can AutoZone Maintain Going Up In 2022?

With shares buying and selling comparatively according to the historic common from a valuation perspective, there isn’t a clear valuation upside catalyst. One yr in the past, when AZO was buying and selling at a reasonably cheap valuation, that was completely different. Shares might nonetheless rise in 2022, nevertheless. Potential elements for which are a shift from costly, techy progress shares in the direction of extra worthwhile, extra fairly valued shares equivalent to AZO. The latest rise in rates of interest appears to have accelerated this pattern. With inflation working excessive, an organization that may go on inflationary pressures comparatively simply, equivalent to AZO, may be in demand by buyers. Final however not least, AutoZone’s avid buybacks might additionally assist propel shares upwards over the approaching months – throughout the newest quarter, AZO has purchased again $900 million price of inventory, for an annualized buyback tempo of near 10%.

Once we check out EPS estimates for the subsequent fiscal yr, which can begin in September, we see that AZO is forecasted to earn $118 per share. Rounding this as much as $120 to think about AZO’s historical past of beating estimates, we might derive a value goal of $2080 by utilizing the 10-year median earnings a number of of 17.3. This equates to an upside potential of ~7% by December. With a doubtlessly manner bigger earnings beat relative to estimates, or with an above-average earnings a number of, positive aspects might be bigger, in fact. AutoZone has crushed EPS estimates for the final 4 quarters by a mixed $18, thus a $2 EPS beat for the subsequent fiscal yr isn’t an excessively aggressive estimate.

I might thus say that AZO has some upside potential this yr, because it appears to be like like shares might cross above $2000 even with out aggressive estimates. AZO’s upside potential is not gigantic, nevertheless, which aligns with the aforementioned perception that AZO is buying and selling comparatively near honest worth right this moment.

Is AZO Inventory A Purchase, Promote, Or Maintain?

AutoZone has been a wonderful compounder prior to now. Its administration may be very shareholder-friendly, and because of robust money flows, buyers can count on extra buybacks in 2022 and past.

Rising common car age implies that automobiles want, on common, extra and costlier repairs, which gives progress tailwinds for AutoZone. With car costs climbing massively, extra individuals will keep on with their used automobiles and restore them as an alternative of choosing new automobiles, which also needs to assist AutoZone in rising its revenues additional.

Shares usually are not an ultra-bargain any longer, however they aren’t wanting costly, both. I believe that AZO is buying and selling at honest worth right this moment. Traders can count on some positive aspects this yr, and in the long term, same-store gross sales progress and buybacks ought to present for ample EPS progress and share value positive aspects. As a consequence of the truth that shares have run up quite a bit during the last yr, I personally assume that ready for an eventual pullback might repay, though buyers ought to nonetheless be capable to do effectively in the long term once they purchase at present costs.



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